[00:01:56] Andy Edstrom: I mean, they are an unmitigated disaster. You know, my words not yours. I know lots of people that I consider good bitcoiners who have gotten absolutely shellacked by these things. They’re all dudes. We still need more women in Bitcoin. We have a few, I’ll recommend people listen to your recent episode with Nat Brunell, but yeah, a number of my friends who are Bitcoiners have lost tons of money in these things.

[00:02:21] Andy Edstrom: Obviously it’s a spectrum, there’s better and worse ones and yeah, I think there’s pain across the sector. The newer dicier ones are down, I don’t know, 90 plus percent off their peaks in some cases, more the higher quality ones. I mean, I guess he probably had to put MSTR in a league of its own. Disclaimer. Disclaimer.

[00:02:45] Andy Edstrom: You know, we both have relationships with Michael Saylor. I think it’s now, back to 2020, fall of 2020 when you and I did an episode and we were talking about they had just put half a billion dollars of their balance sheet into Bitcoin, and I observed that maybe the balance sheet could bear a little bit more leverage than it had, and I had no idea that, he would take it as far as he has. But, here we are. Here we are today.

[00:03:10] Preston Pysh: And just a little bit more leverage.

[00:03:12] Andy Edstrom: Just a little bit. Just a little bit. Although actually it’s interesting. I’d have to think about like as compared to MNav or compared to the balance sheet value.

[00:03:20] Preston Pysh: You have got to define the leverage because you’re actually a lot of equity raises is what it’s actually , go ahead. Define this for people. because they might snarl at the terminology.

[00:03:30] Andy Edstrom: Yeah. Well, and I don’t have the former numbers in front of me from back in the day, but I guess my recollection is that balance sheet had very little debt. It had half a billion in cash, and the core business, the business intelligence software was cash flowing like maybe a hundred million a year or something.

[00:03:48] Andy Edstrom: And a hundred million a year roughly of cash flow. You know, you should be able to put a few turns of leverage on that. You ought to be able to put, if there’s a hundred million of cash flow, maybe you can borrow 300 or 400, or if you really want to push the envelope, you know, 500.

[00:04:02] Andy Edstrom: Those would’ve been kind of normal leverage levels for a company like that with recurring revenue and contracts. Obviously, fast forward to today. I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but there’s, I want to say like on the order of, I mean it’s billions of dollars of actual debt. That’s the convert debt.

[00:04:19] Andy Edstrom: And then obviously we’ve got billions of dollars now of preferreds and the preferreds are technically not debt, you know, that can shut off the dividends. But the sort of debt, like with the interest payments on those things being, I want to say seven or 800, million a year. Then I guess if you looked at balance sheet and you said, okay, if the market cap of, it’s funny, as we’re speaking, I’m pulling up market cap.

[00:04:44] Preston Pysh: Yeah, the Bitcoin’s worth 56 billion as of today.

[00:04:48] Andy Edstrom: Yeah. So if you have 50 plus billion of stock and you’ve got, I don’t know, 20 billion of quasi debt claims against that’s actually not that levered. So yeah, it doesn’t feel that bad and certainly. It’s a cash flowing business and certainly it’s by far the largest player in the market.

[00:05:05] Preston Pysh: Andy, take MicroStrategy. Let’s put it on the shelf. We’ll come back and talk about that. Talk about all the other treasury companies, and I think what is your broader dumpster fire talking point? Let’s talk that and then we can maybe talk the nuance of MicroStrategy since I think we both agree it’s very different than anything else that’s out there.

[00:05:25] Andy Edstrom: Yeah, and look, I mean, I’m sort of hesitant to name names. I think probably everyone listening to this program knows, the names, what these companies are. Because you know, there are various promoters that have been marketing the heck out of them over the last number of months. And yeah, they range from people who you know, from companies that have new public company CEOs, like leadership’s never run a public company to problems with reporting, like failing to file SEC filings on time to businesses that have no cash flow whatsoever to serve as debt and have done debt deals, generally convert deals.

[00:06:04] Andy Edstrom: And then, yeah, just the numbers of anybody who bought the top or near the top of these stocks a few months ago. You know, they’re down in some cases, 80%, in other cases, 90%. In other cases, 95%. So maybe that’s my short answer, I guess, on the dumpster fire.

[00:06:19] Preston Pysh: You know, for me, I’ve been trying to, where I really struggle to explain this to family and friends or really anybody for that matter, is when people are asking about a treasury company specifically that’s trying to securitize Bitcoin. Like talking about this arbitrage between Bitcoin’s performance and what they’re issuing, whether it’s preferreds or convertible debt, and then arbing, the difference between like people’s eyes just glaze over and they just immediately are like, what in the hell is this guy talking about?

[00:06:52] Preston Pysh: And so I think a framework for me that has resonated I think a little bit better for people is to frame it like this. So people understand Tether very quickly, the stablecoin. You know, they’re buying U.S. treasuries. They’re tokenizing it to create a dollar stablecoin, and they’re putting these dollar stablecoins out into the economy, but it’s backed by U.S. sovereign debt.

[00:07:18] Preston Pysh: I would make the argument, and I think this would be a really controversial argument. I think other people in the market might not agree with this framing, but similar to how Tether is. Or circle, or any of them are securitizing these dollar stablecoins with treasuries. I think what MicroStrategy is effectively doing is also creating stablecoins, dollar stablecoins that produce yield.

[00:07:43] Preston Pysh: But instead of using U.S. treasuries, they’re using Bitcoin. And in order to do that in a way that isn’t unsafe, they have to over collateralize it. At a, you know, the number I keep hearing is five to one, right? And I think when you look at the five to one over collateralization, it’s a function of Bitcoin’s volatility.

[00:08:03] Preston Pysh: So if Bitcoin can go down by 70% or 80% in a year, you really do need to be five to one backed, assuming it doesn’t go any lower than that to ensure that the peg of what they’re issuing stays intact. And people might hear that and say, but it’s not the same. Well, I’m not saying it’s the same. I’m trying to use it as a frame of reference or a mental model for people to try to understand what he’s trying to do.

[00:08:30] Preston Pysh: He’s effectively doing dollar stablecoins. He’s issuing them as preferred stock and they pay a dividend where dollar stablecoins really aren’t paying any type of dividend or coupon. But they are pegging themselves the dollar with something that’s way less volatile in dollar terms than using Bitcoin as collateral.

[00:08:49] Preston Pysh: So would you agree with that?

[00:08:52] Andy Edstrom: I like that. I like that framework and it brings into relief. ’cause you mentioned Tether, it brings into relief a couple things. First of all, you know, people like to think in binaries and usually that’s wrong. So you use the example of Tether and yes. Tether is mostly collateralized by U.S. treasuries, except for, it’s not a hundred percent as far as I know, right?

[00:09:13] Andy Edstrom: It’s like, I don’t know, 95% treasuries or something. And then they’ve got some in Bitcoin, they got some in gold, they got various other assets. And so when I think about Tether, I think about, yeah, it’s dollar good, except in the unlikely probability, right?

[00:09:28] Andy Edstrom: That it isn’t, you know, like there’s a run on the system. People try to redeem their tethers for actual dollars. And they sell all the treasuries. And even if they get the treasuries at par, maybe they get out of the treasuries at par. Maybe they have to sell some of the other collateral. And does the rest of the collateral cover all the claims against it in the form of Tether tokens?

[00:09:48] Andy Edstrom: And the answer is yes in pick a number, you know, 99% of cases that will cover it, except for maybe one. And then you look at something like the MSTR balance sheet and yeah, I see that as also on the spectrum of highly likely to be solvent and highly likely to not have a problem paying out all the contracted liabilities, except for there is some small probability that it doesn’t work out and that it unwinds.

[00:10:18] Andy Edstrom: And so, you know, reasonable Investor’s can make the bet, like, okay, I think it’s 95% certain that they’ll pay all their liabilities and the accretion rate of value of Bitcoin. Will occur at a faster rate than they have to pay out, and therefore it’ll be accretive to shareholders. And I just think people have to acknowledge that, oh yes, but there’s some downside risk that it doesn’t work out because there’s a prolonged bear market in Bitcoin in dollar terms, or you know, God forbid Bitcoin fails completely, et cetera, et cetera.

[00:10:51] Preston Pysh: Yep. So you got, that and what becomes a huge part if you’re taking Bitcoin, securitizing it and issuing stablecoin like. Equity that pays dividends around what he’s doing is 10%. So you’ve got that and you’ve got this ratio of five to one to ensure that this stays intact, assuming the math and everything kind of stays the same, and the volatility stays in that range. And Bitcoin continues to grow. A lot of assumptions, very different than just owning Bitcoin. We fully acknowledge that.

[00:11:25] Preston Pysh: Then you have other companies that are, you know, to the dumpster fire part of your talking point that are trying to do that. They’re trying to do what Saylor, which I would say is doing in a responsible way based on the math, but they don’t seem to be executing. And I think that’s the real talking point.

[00:11:45] Preston Pysh: The execution’s different. You have treasury companies that aren’t even using Bitcoin as their reserve. They’re using Binance tokens, they’re using Ethereum, they’re doing all sorts of, and these things are being referred to, for people that aren’t familiar are being referred to as DATs. They’re going out and they’re basically pumping the price of these other things and saying it’s like MicroStrategy.

[00:12:07] Preston Pysh: And you know, that’s for the market to determine. And I think the market’s determining it pretty quickly. Any thoughts on that part of it or any other talking points on the dumpster fire that you want to quantify, Andy?

[00:12:20] Andy Edstrom: Yeah, look, couple things to key on one, obviously. Yeah. The digital asset treasury companies, the DATs.

[00:12:27] Andy Edstrom: I guess it’s like anything else, right? You’ve got this long tail of crypto assets, digital assets, whatever you want to call ’em. The farther down the curve you go on those things, the more inherent risk there is in the underlying assets. And then add on top of that, that you’re levering it. So yeah, good luck.

[00:12:44] Andy Edstrom: Good luck to all participants in those markets. I wish them the best. I think it’s going to be tough for a lot of those. Some will succeed. I don’t know which ones. I think, yeah, with respect to the issue of how fast can you raise capital to build a balance sheet. That is accretive to shareholders just in the Bitcoin treasury company land.

[00:13:07] Andy Edstrom: That’s the major part that I think is, I don’t want to say totally unpredictable, but a reasonable investor will say, how quickly can these things raise capital in an accretive manner? Over time. And therefore, how can they build that, if you want to call it the Bitcoin yield, right? How quickly can they accumulate coins such that there’s accretion and outperformance versus the underlying price of Bitcoin?

[00:13:34] Andy Edstrom: And it all depends on market conditions, right? I mean, a few months ago these guys were. In some cases able to raise tons of money relative to the size of their market caps, and now they can’t raise any, or some of them can’t raise any, some are eking out small amounts of capital raises. And so as an investor there’s always uncertainty.

[00:13:53] Andy Edstrom: I mean, if you just buy a normal manufacturing company at 10 or 15 times earnings. You don’t know what those earnings are going to be in the future, but probably you can look at the core business and say, well, it’s grown at X rate over a number of years. I assume that X will continue or some discount or premium to that rate of growth, and therefore I can kind of draw a box approximately around what I think those cash flows are likely to be and therefore what I think the security is worth.

[00:14:22] Andy Edstrom: I think with some of these smaller issuers where the major factors, how fast can they raise capital and in what form? It’s just a huge possible range of outcomes. I mean, the range of outcomes is so wide that it sort of becomes absurd to try and value these things.

[00:14:39] Preston Pysh: So when you say value these things, MNav is the big talking point. You know, if the Bitcoin is a billion, then the company is valued at 1.1 billion or whatever, some multiple above or below that MNav and for the company, hopefully above the MNav.

[00:14:57] Preston Pysh: How do you think through that framework? Is it a viable framework? How do you value something like this?

[00:15:04] Andy Edstrom: Yeah, so I do think it’s a useful indicator, and I’ll give you some examples and benchmarks. By the way, I’ll just say that I think it was about 13 months ago or so, a little over a year ago that I started hearing people in the Bitcoin community start talking about how MNav, which is fundamentally a multiple of balance sheet value, right? Was comparable to price earnings, you know, or cashflow multiples.

[00:15:29] Andy Edstrom: The implication being that a reasonably valued company might trade at 15 times earnings or 15 times cashflow, and therefore that Bitcoin treasury companies might be valued at 15 times MNav. And my head almost exploded at the time, and I had some conversations including on podcasts and stuff. And it was just, I mean, it was wild.

[00:15:52] Andy Edstrom: Anyway, we’ve come back to reality, I think, and here’s my sort of rough framework for MNAs. So the first thing to say, and you know this well, and you’ve taught your listeners about this over the years, which is nothing certain. And so we have valuation metrics and none of them are precise. So this is all sort of rough math, but hopefully useful.

[00:16:11] Andy Edstrom: So I took a college degree from a good college in economics. Yes, I did study some actually useful stuff. Like I took a lot of math, but I did take a Keynesian economics degree, which was a hindrance, not a help in understanding Bitcoin.

[00:16:27] Andy Edstrom: But one of the, I guess in retrospect useful things I did back in school was I was a teaching assistant. I was a TA in the econ department. There was a visiting professor and he said, Andy, you know, come do some research for me. And he had some data on closed-end funds. And closed-end funds are these structures that have existed in, you know, the U.S. stock market for, I don’t know, decades and decades.

[00:16:49] Andy Edstrom: And basically they buy mostly liquid assets, but unlike an open-end mutual fund. Right where you can create and redeem shares, you can’t do that. It’s closed end. And so when you buy the security, it trades at either a discount to net asset value or premium to net asset value.

[00:17:07] Andy Edstrom: And you know, this professor said, look, try and find some predictive pattern. Here’s a bunch of data. I want to make money in markets. Like what patterns exist in the discounts or the premiums or any other piece of data we have on how these things trade. And is there anything there that’s predictive of future returns?

[00:17:25] Andy Edstrom: The basic range of outcomes for closed-end funds, generally speaking was occasionally they trade at modest discounts, so like that’s the equivalent being an MNav of like you just said, 1.1 or something that’s modest premiums, and then often they trade it at discounts more often and 10% discount was not uncommon. 20% discount is where it often got really interesting.

[00:17:47] Andy Edstrom: You know, if you could buy something at a 20% discount, or that’d be an MNav, I guess of 0.8, chances were you’re going to get a good return. And then it was sort of gray area between like 10 and 20% discounts. So that’s one kind of benchmark that I think about with respect to MNav on these Bitcoin treasury companies.

[00:18:05] Andy Edstrom: Okay. Second model is one with which you’re well familiar. Very well managed holding companies like Berkshire. Or Markel Corp. Right? And these things, as you know, often trade at when things are going well, they might trade at two times. Book, you know, like a, 2x MNav. Occasionally higher than that, but not that often.

[00:18:27] Andy Edstrom: And then third model I think about as banks. Okay. Banks can use 10x leverage on their balance sheet, right? That’s a huge advantage. They should be able to generate very attractive returns in theory with that kind of leverage and very well managed banks trade at maybe two to two and a half times book value. Which would be comparable to, you know, two to two and a half MNav.

[00:18:53] Andy Edstrom: So none of these examples or these models is perfect. When it comes to Bitcoin treasury companies, but I do sort of triangulate to some notion of these things. If they’re extremely well managed, maybe they should trade it two times, maybe two and a half times in extremists, but that’s rare. And more normally, they should trade at either modest premiums or possibly even modest discounts.

[00:19:18] Preston Pysh: I think for the listener, they get wrapped up into like, look at MicroStrategy. And I mean, for all intents and purposes, the a hundred mil that the operating business makes is completely dwarfed by the 56 billion that sits on the balance sheet.

[00:19:33] Preston Pysh: And so somebody’s just looking at it very generically and they’re saying, well, I just don’t understand why I would pay more for something like this. That doesn’t even give me the attributes of Bitcoin. That for all intents and purposes is the same. I could go out and buy one Bitcoin, or I could buy one share of MicroStrategy, and let’s just assume the MNav is at one and not at a discount or a premium.

[00:19:55] Preston Pysh: The person’s asking themselves, why would I go buy that thing when I can just go buy Bitcoin and know that I have custody of it and know that I can do whatever I want with it, as opposed to this, I’ve got an opinion. I’m curious how you would respond to that person. As they would ask such basic, and I like the basic, 15-year-old kind of question because it gets to the root of what it is versus Bitcoin.

[00:20:20] Andy Edstrom: Yeah, so let’s get to the nub of why I hold Bitcoin and I’ll just speak for myself and maybe other people will find that idea useful. And there’s sort of three legs of the stool for me.

[00:20:32] Andy Edstrom: So one is uncensorable money asset that I can carry across a border if I absolutely have to, you know, if I get debanked, if I get cut off from my assets. And I need to have access to something where I hold the keys.

[00:20:46] Andy Edstrom: That’s a good reason to own Bitcoin. You don’t get that obviously with, let’s say Bitcoin Treasury company stock or MSTR stock. The second reason I own Bitcoin is, number go up. I don’t call it savings technology. I actually take issue with the notion that Bitcoin is quote unquote savings.

[00:21:05] Andy Edstrom: To me, savings should not have purchasing power that fluctuates, plus or minus 50% in short periods of time. I think if Bitcoin reaches its potential, it will become savings technology and look, granted if you live, I’m speaking for myself again, right? If you live in a hyperinflationary location country, that’s got a terrible fiat currency then Bitcoin kind of is savings.

[00:21:30] Andy Edstrom: Although, caveat, again, if you live in such a place, you also probably have access to Tether some other stablecoin, which might be a better short-term savings technology than Bitcoin. So I can admit Bitcoin is sort of very long term, quote unquote savings technology. But really it’s an investment, in my view.

[00:21:48] Andy Edstrom: Someday if it reaches its potential, it’ll be a savings vehicle. Today, it’s an investment vehicle. So anyway, yeah. Second reason is, you know, I expect the value to go up. I expect to earn an attractive rate of return holding Bitcoin, and in that case, either Bitcoin itself or some paper version, let’s call it some version where that sits in a brokerage account, can satisfy that criteria.

[00:22:08] Andy Edstrom: And then for me, the third reason is I actually believe that a world in which Bitcoin succeeds is a better world. So for ethical reasons, basically I hold Bitcoin and I’m involved with Bitcoin. So two of the legs of that stool can be achieved with something like MSTR, one cannot, and the leg of the stool of it’s an investment and it’s supposed to earn a rate of return, I ask myself the question, okay, how much greater of a return risk adjusted do I expect to earn holding something like MSTR versus just holding spot Bitcoin?

[00:22:42] Andy Edstrom: And that’s the question. And so for me, it has to offer some significant premium in terms of expected value. And then, you know, reasonable people can disagree about how much premium is required to hold that asset as opposed to just outright Bitcoin.

[00:22:59] Preston Pysh: Yeah, at the end of the day, MSTR can use leverage and it can use leverage from publicly traded markets to enhance its return profile. But it comes with added risk for sure, and it comes with lacking taking self custody and like all these things that we talk about with Bitcoin. So if people need to think through those trade-offs and they have to make an informed decision and take self-responsibility for themselves.

[00:23:26] Andy Edstrom: And by the way, those risks are several, right? Yeah. They’re not just one. Like you mentioned, leverage. Okay, if the leverage goes wrong and the stock goes to zero, let’s put it this way, things can go badly in Bitcoin, such as the price goes down for a long time, but it’s not a zero and it recovers ultimately, whereas company stock where it’s levered and the price of the underlying Bitcoin stays down long enough that it unwinds, right? The stock can be a zero. So that’s one.

[00:23:53] Andy Edstrom: And then you’ve got obviously key man risk in the case of MicroStrategy. Because you know, the chairman, I believe Michael Saylor still has control. If God forbid something happens to him, you know, the board can probably make a decision, a different decision about what to do with the corporate strategy. So that’s risk for the shareholder.

[00:24:13] Andy Edstrom: And then of course, you got the concentrated coin risk, which is. If you’re a believer in the long term potential of Bitcoin, then you have to ask yourself, well, what happens with a big enough pile of coins when governments get very interested, right?

[00:24:27] Andy Edstrom: When do governments need to get some coins and they look for, you’ve talked about this in the past on other episodes, and they look for the biggest honey pots. Is there a risk associated with ation there? So yeah, there’s numerous risks. In addition, just to the levered outcome on the price of underlying Bitcoin.

[00:24:46] Preston Pysh: What about companies that, you know, you mentioned Berkshire, you mentioned Markel, holding companies that you know are acquiring fully owned operational subsidiaries and that are generating free cash flows. What about businesses? That would be then taking the free cash flows and, you know, putting those retained earnings into Bitcoin, but also entertaining more acquisitions depending on whether the price is a lucrative return profile.

[00:25:14] Preston Pysh: You haven’t seen that. What you’ve seen is this Bitcoin treasury play where you’re basically tokenizing dollars through the issues of preferred stock and you’re over collateralized. That seems to be the playbook that everybody’s taken and not more of a Berkshire model.

[00:25:30] Preston Pysh: Do you see that coming to market? Do you see that being something that would work? Just in general, what are your thoughts?

[00:25:39] Andy Edstrom: I think my biggest overarching thought is everything takes longer in Bitcoin than we think it will, right?

[00:25:44] Preston Pysh: Amen to that.

[00:25:45] Andy Edstrom: Yes. Game theory. You know, government’s buying omega candles, moon bags. Yes. Much or all of it will happen in time and it always takes longer than we think it will.

[00:25:58] Preston Pysh: Is it just an education burden? Is that why? Why does it take longer for more people to kind of come to this conclusion.

[00:26:05] Andy Edstrom: Yeah, I definitely think education’s a major factor. It’s so hard to understand Bitcoin. You know, I imagine I have some significant understanding of Bitcoin and you know, more than 99% of the population.

[00:26:17] Andy Edstrom: Also, there are people that know much more about it, orders of magnitude more, so it’s all a distribution, but yet it takes a ton of work to climb the curve on the game theory, the math. You know, the network topography, the history of money, the geopolitics, all that stuff, as you know. It’s a, pretty heavy lift.

[00:26:38] Andy Edstrom: It takes a lot of work, so most people don’t have the time. Many are too lazy, many just are living hand to mouth day to day. They don’t have time to research this stuff. Others were taught the wrong thing. They have got to unlearn the wrong thing and learn the right thing. Sorry, go ahead.

[00:26:53] Preston Pysh: No, to that last point, I think this is also a huge factor of it is a lot of people, I think if you would look at, just from a percentage standpoint, at least half the population is just living paycheck to pay.

[00:27:05] Preston Pysh: And if there’s one thing that I’ve learned is people just can’t go and put money that they’re not even earning because they’re living paycheck to paycheck. If you can’t put anything into savings, that in and of itself is a non-starter.

[00:27:18] Preston Pysh: And then for the people that do have just a small amount of retained earnings or cash flow. They want to put it into something that they know is going to be their, almost like a rainy day fund kind of thing, and they don’t want a lot of volatility in it. So they’re being constrained by their lack of desire for having any type of volatility.

[00:27:38] Preston Pysh: And then for the ones that are the huge earners that you know, I would say are ripe for owning Bitcoin because they have free cash flows and they can deal with intense volatility, a lot of them are looking at things that, for all intents and purposes, and Bitcoiners would probably hate me for saying this, but that are sexier.

[00:27:59] Preston Pysh: They’re looking at AI or they’re looking at things like that, that I guess is easier to understand because crazy as that sounds, it’s easier to understand AI because they can go on their computer and they can type one question in there and it pops out this fantastic answer and they’re saying, oh my God, I don’t know what this is, but I need to own who’s ever making this? And then they put investments into that because it’s just, it’s very quick to understand there’s no big education burden.

[00:28:25] Preston Pysh: You can use it one time and you’re like, okay, this is pretty cool and this is going to be revolutionary. And like that’s the end of the thesis and that’s where they’re throwing their extra cash.

[00:28:33] Andy Edstrom: A hundred percent. There’s all these, Bitcoin is arguably irrelevant as you’re pointing out to huge swath of the population that doesn’t save. And then I agree completely that the AI narrative has sucked a lot of the wind out of Bitcoin in terms of U.S. dollar price in the last year or two.

[00:28:51] Andy Edstrom: By the way, I’ll go a little bit further. Here comes some heresy. When I published, why buy Bitcoin in 2019? My view at the time was that Bitcoin was the best risk adjusted investment I’d probably ever seen in my lifetime.

[00:29:04] Andy Edstrom: Granted, that was a, you know, I think I went to, started writing, it was 3K and when it went to press, it was like 8K. So we’re 10x higher in price now. And yes, a lot of the risks have been removed, but now I have to ask myself like, is this still risk adjusted the best investment opportunity available to me?

[00:29:23] Andy Edstrom: And I can still answer yes, but also I can say but not to the point that I want to put, you know, substantially all my portfolio in it. In other words, there are other opportunities, investment opportunities, that are also attractive. And if I think about risk, and I acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin could still go to zero, God forbid. It might be worth owning some other assets as well.

[00:29:47] Andy Edstrom: And so when I think about the opportunity that Bitcoin offers, it was crazy attractive when I first started buying it and made a big bet on it. It was even more crazy attractive when you made your first buy, which I had been around at that time, and now it’s very attractive, you know? But are there other assets I want to own out there? Yeah.

[00:30:09] Preston Pysh: What are some of these other things? I mean, it’s an investing show. Let’s talk about some of these other ideas you got. I love it. Let’s hear it.

[00:30:14] Andy Edstrom: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, God help me. I’m probably going to be buying some real estate soon. So that’s one thing that I think it’s okay to own. I like monetary metals. I don’t think Peter Schiff is right, but I do think that gold and silver and platinum and you know, various other lesser monetary metals are probably going to be, continue to be good investments over the, at least the medium term.

[00:30:38] Andy Edstrom: I kind of like commodities in general. I think that oil, when oil and gas is kind of washed out, I think that if we’re going to build out all this electricity capacity in general, power capacity is going to be a huge role for natural gas because it takes a long time to get the nuclear online and, solar’s not going to fill the void.

[00:31:00] Andy Edstrom: And yeah, I had this argument with my, brother-in-law, who’s in the solar install business, and he’s like, solar’s going to eat everything. And I say, no, we’re, it’s just going to be more. This is Lyn Alden’s view too. It’s like, you know, more, it’s very rare in history that some form of energy generation just goes away.

[00:31:16] Andy Edstrom: You generally just get more of all of the above as humanity finds new and more interesting ways to consume energy. I think, I mean, there’s parts of AI that I like. I mean, I’m a Google shareholder, you know?

[00:31:29] Preston Pysh: What did you think about, Elon recently did an interview and was asked, you know, like, what are some of the investible things in the space? And I’m paraphrasing the thing. And he named one company and only one company, and it was Google, which I found noteworthy as a competitor.

[00:31:46] Andy Edstrom: That reminds me of an interview he did probably 10-years ago, and this was like maybe before OpenAI was founded, I don’t remember exactly when OpenAI was founded, but it was, it might have been in the early days of OpenAI. And someone was asking him, you know, his concerns about AI in general, you know, and the threat of AI to humanity.

[00:32:04] Andy Edstrom: And they asked him, well, what companies are you worried about, and at that time he said there’s only one. He didn’t say which one it was, but it was pretty clear already at that time. It was, yeah, it was Google that It was Google.

[00:32:16] Preston Pysh: Yeah. it is really noteworthy because the whole reason that he initially funded OpenAI with Sam was because of his conversation with, I think it was Sergey from Google that he had that conversation and the species comment came out and it scared the live in bejesus out of him. And then he went and funded OpenAI to compete with Google.

[00:32:38] Preston Pysh: And so I guess I just, I found it really interesting that just, I think the interview came out just this week where the one company that he named as a viable competitor to what he’s doing with Open or with x AI was Google.

[00:32:53] Preston Pysh: And when Google first came out with some of their AI models, they were not impressive. And I would just say just in the past month, it really seems like they’re giving OpenAI a real run for their money. I know I’ve been playing around with their model, with their Gemini model, and some of the things that I’m getting back are very impressive and completely on par with OpenAI’s model.

[00:33:15] Andy Edstrom: A hundred percent. And if the classic trope of lockin and having a platform and you know, offering multiple products, look, it affects me. Okay. Like I’ve still have a Gmail account. God help me. I use Google Calendar, so you know, is it convenient to use Gemini all on the same login? Yeah, you bet it is.

[00:33:34] Preston Pysh: Yeah.

[00:33:35] Andy Edstrom: Bundling.

[00:33:36] Preston Pysh: Yeah, there is massive lockin there.

[00:33:39] Andy Edstrom: What about you, Preston? I mean, what, else do you like in terms of invest investments? I mean, I know over the years, and by the way, I’m, sympathetic to your view, which is like if the world reprices on Bitcoin, you know, then companies probably aren’t going to be worth 30 times earnings. You know, they might be worth eight times or 10 times, but is there no nowhere else that interests you right now?

[00:33:57] Preston Pysh: I mean where I get frustrated with all of this is for the companies that I am finding that I think are going to have a huge impact into the future. The risk adjusted return is really kind of the real question, and it’s like, should I be paying these crazy multiples to own the company when the execution risk and the competition risk, and all of the risks that you just start listing right, are in competition with, you know, I look at Bitcoin and although I’m not real thrilled with the past year’s performance, to be quite honest. I find that Bitcoin seems to do really quite well, especially after those times when you’re most frustrated with it.

[00:34:41] Preston Pysh: So until I kind of see a real clean break that the network adoption rate that we’ve seen, you know, growing at a power-law-like type pace is broken or doesn’t seem to be fulfilling, what many would say is mathematical certainty or just kind of a global network rate of adoption. If I ever felt like that was breaking down, which I don’t, I’m having trouble finding things in the market that I think are going to outperform. It’s really hard.

[00:35:11] Andy Edstrom: Look, I’m sympathetic. I’m sympathetic to that view. And by the way, you know, God helped me six years ago. I published a price target for Bitcoin, right? I had three scenarios, and this is obviously simplistic, right?

[00:35:22] Andy Edstrom: But you know, it’s what I decided on, which was back then, scenario one for me was, fails it dies, okay? And I put a one third probability on that, which was probably too high, but you know, I was still learning. Cut me some slack. And then the second scenario was, okay, it’s kind of already reached its potential. Remember this was a publication of like 8K Bitcoin, and then the third scenario, which I said a one third probability to was the success case.

[00:35:47] Andy Edstrom: And you know, I didn’t look ahead decades and decades, but I picked a 10-year price target. And the 10-year price target was 8 trillion of network value, which would be about 400K per coin. Okay? And remember, price was eight. So eight to 400, that would be a 50x, right? Pretty attractive for a 10-year return.

[00:36:11] Andy Edstrom: And how’s it gone? Well, that was six years ago and it’s gone 10x, right? Which leads another five X for the next four-years. I still that price target, you know, it’s kind of in the ballpark. I could definitely be wrong, but, you know, do I want to hold an asset that I expect to go five x in the next four-years? Yeah, you bet I do. Do I want to hold it in size? Sure. Yeah. So everyone always says why it’s so bearish. Andy. I think I’m sticking with that target, at least for now.

[00:36:38] Preston Pysh: I guess I’m more bullish in when I look at what a lot of this technology’s going to bring, especially in the form of robotics and ai. I’m just looking at like, how are the governments going to respond to so much dislocation that’s going to happen from all these advanced technologies?

[00:36:55] Preston Pysh: And they’re going to have to print. They’re going to have to print just like they’ve been printing maybe even more. And when I look at Bitcoin and the fact that you can’t, it’s immutable. I can send it straight over, you know, any type of internet connection where gold, you can’t do that. I don’t know the use case, is there times 10 for me in the face of everything that’s transpired since 2019?

[00:37:18] Preston Pysh: Like when you’re, you know, the timeline that you’re throwing out when you were writing the book, I’m looking at, like, back then we weren’t talking about AI as being like. It was a fiction novel back then. It was more of like, oh yeah, we’re tinkering with these neural nets and they can do things, and like there was no chat bot that you could talk to and it would give you some like super advanced answer. The humanoid robots just in the past year, when I look at the numbers in the quantities that Elon alone is saying, he’s going to be pumping out in the coming five years. Like this thing’s moving out like a freight train.

[00:37:52] Preston Pysh: You know, when you look at the gigafactories that he was building for the cars and like all these battery plants and like how many cars he, the, projections of like what he was saying he was going to do around now and in the coming couple years when they were building that and like the size of some of those factories and when it was first getting announced, I was like, come on, the size of this is crazy.

[00:38:13] Preston Pysh: Like is there really going to be this kind of demand? And now in 2025 when I’m hearing and seeing the cost reduction to the end user with the driverless technology and what it’s going to do to Uber as far as the Robotaxi, and I just kind of pull on that threat a little bit. I can quickly see how they’re just going to be such a dominant player. Like absolute dominant player.

[00:38:39] Preston Pysh: And so then I’m just, I’m hitting copy paste on the humanoid robot side, which I think is not seen by, I think very few people, everyday people are looking at the humanoid robots and thinking that it’s going to be a viable thing. Just like we were looking back in 2020 or 2019 with the Robotaxi and saying, I don’t know, man.

[00:38:58] Preston Pysh: Now it’s getting very real. I think you’re going to have the same thing with the humanoid robots in about five years from now. And I think that’s when it’s going to really set in where the printing press is going to get super hot, maybe starting to catch on fire because of the pace that it’s going to have to be moving at.

[00:39:15] Preston Pysh: And do I think what Elon’s doing is going to be a market leader? Yeah, I absolutely do. But like all things, it comes down to like, how much are you going to pay to participate? Like what’s the markup on owning that equity versus just betting on the printing press, continuing to fire off, you know, a hundred dollars bills all day long, all day and all night.

[00:39:38] Andy Edstrom: We’re going to get a lot more Schwab books. You’re right about that. Preston. I have almost no doubt about that conclusion. And yeah, we’re still at a point, you know, Bitcoin is now fraction, still less than 10% of gold, you know? In terms of market cap, I mean, if gold’s 20 something trillion at current prices and Bitcoin’s at 2 trillion or a little under.

[00:40:00] Preston Pysh: I think gold’s just so easy for the market to understand. I think that people are finally understanding that the basement trade, they’re finally understanding that nothing stops this train. I think that has finally hit a Wall Street and, you can, I’m sure you still have tons of friends that work on Wall Street.

[00:40:19] Preston Pysh: It seems everybody understands that and everybody agrees that the printing press is never turning off and the math don’t work for fixed income anymore. I think everybody understands that. And so then in the question is, okay, well then how does that get resolved and like, what do I want to own as that’s resolving itself?

[00:40:35] Preston Pysh: And it just seems like everybody’s like, yeah, Bitcoin’s a lot to wrap your head around, there’s all this encryption stuff and like, you know, do I trust the people that wrote it? And like I think it’s a lot of work where gold is just this easy button that they can push and it just kind of like answers the mail on the thesis that the debasement thesis. And so I think you have a lot of people just hitting the easy button because they just don’t want to do the work to understand it.

[00:41:01] Andy Edstrom: A hundred percent. And reminder, there was a very, long time where wealth managers wouldn’t even own gold, right? Like, forget about bitcoin, which is, you know, if your thesis is hard money, at least you ought to get your head around gold. But I would say until very recently, most of my wealth management. Brethren, we’re not willing to buy gold for their clients. And so if Bitcoin is like a bridge farther than that, this stuff I guess just takes time.

[00:41:28] Andy Edstrom: And then of course you got the factor, which is central banks are actually buying gold. It doesn’t, it’s not clear that they’re actually buying Bitcoin with rare exceptions, right? And so, yeah, my belief is that there is Bitcoin accumulation going on behind the scenes at the sovereign level, probably in size.

[00:41:48] Andy Edstrom: But we haven’t heard about it yet. And that’s the smart strategy, to be honest, right? This, it’s not smart to say, yes, I’m going to buy a bunch of this thing before you actually buy it, because that bids up the price. You might as well accumulate quietly over time. Even if your long-term goal is to earn it into a significant part of your overall reserve portfolio.

[00:42:11] Andy Edstrom: So stuff takes time. It’s still early days, and I guess that’s just where we are.

[00:42:16] Preston Pysh: What are your thoughts on the four-year cycle?

[00:42:18] Andy Edstrom: Yeah, so I believe that the four-year cycle remain. Well first of. Someday the four-year cycle will end. Nevertheless, it remains undefeated. And where we sit today, you know, I’m 60% or 60 plus percent of the belief that it’s another four-year cycle and we’re in a bear market, which is also to say that I think there’s a 40% chance that it’s not a bear market and that we’ll recover from this current downturn. Probably there’ll be significant upside, you know, I’m thinking in terms of like 200K, you know, let’s say next year or within 18 months, or roughly that timeline.

[00:42:55] Preston Pysh: So you’re saying it’s a baby cycle. It’s a baby cycle.

[00:43:00] Andy Edstrom: A baby cycle, sure.

[00:43:01] Preston Pysh: It’s just a mini sell off.

[00:43:03] Andy Edstrom: Yeah, in that scenario exactly. Or just a, yeah, a market correction like we routinely get in, Bitcoin, we’ve suffered through many of them over the years or celebrated them, right. If you’ve got cash and you’re stacking, sat, and you’re buying cheap, that’s right. It’s a huge, opportunity. And so, but yeah, look, my base case, my 60% case is the four-year cycle remains undefeated, and we’re living through a bear market right now, and I’ll tell you why.

[00:43:31] Andy Edstrom: You know, the history, of course, of the four-year cycle was at the beginning in the first epoch. If you were a minor and you found a block, you got 50 coins. That was the block subsidy. Yes, you also got transaction fees, but they didn’t amount to hardly anything. But basically you got 50 coins per block and the software was written such that four years hence, or whatever, 200,000 blocks, I don’t remember the exact number. The reward would get cut by half.

[00:43:55] Preston Pysh: 200 10,000 blocks.

[00:43:57] Andy Edstrom: Thank you. 210,000. And so there was some doubt in the community about whether the miners would actually do that, right? What was to stop them from just continuing to mine with a 50 coin reward. And so, yeah, so there was doubt in the early days. Hence when they actually did the right thing and cut the reward by half that was a catalyst for a bull market.

[00:44:18] Andy Edstrom: And then by the second epoch, or I should say the coming, the third epoch, there was arguably some doubt. I mean, I guess you actually were, around in that time. I was not. You would know better than I. Let’s say maybe some members of the community had some doubt and then others didn’t.

[00:44:33] Andy Edstrom: Anyway, it worked out so the cycle became more muted. I would say the factor that still was a factor in the last having was, there’s still the game theory fact that if you were to attack the network, do a 51% attack, the best time to do it is right after the having and the reason is that if you’re a miner and you’re doing your capital expenditures and you’re investing in mining equipment in asics.

[00:44:58] Andy Edstrom: You are making some assumptions about the return on investment you’re going to get, and you’re assuming that you’re going to, you know, mine, the current block subsidy until the next having, and by the way, you probably have at least a four-year outlook, like you’re not buying brand new machines with the expectation that they’re going to be obsolete in less than four years. So you’re budgeting for, oh, I’m going to make good money until the having, and then maybe after the having, like I’m close to break even, I’m making a modest profit.

[00:45:26] Andy Edstrom: Well, of course, if that’s the set of circumstances, then the most miners are likely to be at or near break even on the most amount of their equipment, right after the having. So if someone were to, you know, someone, I don’t know, governments. Who the heck knows were to implement a 51% attack, they would probably do it right after the having. And so if you get past the having and you don’t have a 51% attack, right, well then you’re probably saved for the next, you know, four years.

[00:45:53] Andy Edstrom: So that’s, I think, been an ongoing factor. Now, today at this point, the block subsidy is so small as a percent of the total number of coins that I think it’s reasonable to say, okay, it shouldn’t be a major factor. However, we still live in a world where a lot of the coins are concentrated in a few hands.

[00:46:10] Andy Edstrom: People probably know that the literal top of this year, price wise, was when one single individual, according to Galaxy Digital, you know, used them to sell 8,000 coins. I think it was one guy.

[00:46:23] Preston Pysh: 80,000,

[00:46:24] Andy Edstrom: Oh, excuse me. Thank you, Preston. Off by, off by an order of magnitude, 80,000 coins. And that was one guy, and that was the literal top of the market.

[00:46:33] Andy Edstrom: By the way, you may object. Oh no, that was the 124K top. We subsequently hit 126. Well, one of my other non-consensus views perhaps, is that I measure in inflation adjusted terms, roughly speaking. So I would suggest that the purchasing power of 124 was either higher about the same as 126, 6 months later.

[00:46:52] Andy Edstrom: Related concept, in my view, we did not get an all time high right after the ETFs when we hit 72K, I guess early last year. Was it early last year that we hit 72? And the prior high was 69. To me, that was not an all time high because it was years after the fact. So 72K, several years after 69K had actually less purchasing power than 69K years ago.

[00:47:16] Andy Edstrom: Anyway. Yeah. So yeah, so look, individual whales can put a ceiling on the market, period. Full stop. This will not be the case someday. Someday more coins will be distributed. You know, there’ll be fewer and fewer very large holders who are OGs who acquired their coins either by mining or by accumulating at very low prices a decade plus ago. Those guys will eventually be gone, or at least their ranks will be reduced. But unless and until that happens, you know, these guys dumping can basically cause the bear market and they’ve lived through several, the same pattern in the past.

[00:47:52] Andy Edstrom: And I know, I have got to believe, don’t get me wrong, I don’t know any, as far as I know, no, as far as I know, I don’t have any personal relationships with anyone who owns 80,000 coins. But I have got to believe that there’s some percentage of OG whales out there who say, I’ve seen this movie before. I do want to lighten my load. I do want to buy other assets. I do have other life goals. You know, there’s other things I want to do with my time, and so I’m going to sell some coins here and it can be self-fulfilling.

[00:48:20] Andy Edstrom: And again, I look forward to the cycle where it ceases to be a cycle and I’m wrong. And I’m quite confident that will happen someday. And it may happen, you know, this may be it. And that’s why I assign a 40% chance to it. As opposed to the 60% that, no, it’s just another normal cycle.

[00:48:37] Preston Pysh: Any other highlights or things that when you look across the market right now, that you think are super important, that the audience should know or that you think warrants a final call out?

[00:48:48] Andy Edstrom: Yeah. Yeah. Maybe I should just keep the, bearish trend going here. Here’s a scenario. Okay. Preston.

[00:48:55] Preston Pysh: I’m not that bearish just for the, I’m not that bearish.

[00:48:58] Andy Edstrom: I’m, bearish.

[00:48:59] Preston Pysh: No, I know but I think the audience has heard a couple conversations that I’ve had and a lot of the people that I’ve had on are pretty bearish these days. I don’t know that I’m that bearish. I’m just more confused than I think I’ve ever been in that. The S&P 500, Andy is 1.5% off of its high, and Bitcoin is down 30%. And historically, like the correlation between risk on indices and Bitcoin has been way more correlated.

[00:49:27] Preston Pysh: You know, if Bitcoin was down 30%, the S&P would probably be down 15% right now. And everybody from a market sentiment would be, Hey, risk off is happening. And I’m just not seeing it in the indices. So, although we’re talking a lot about this, it seems to be a bearish sentiment specifically to Bitcoin, but it’s just like, everything’s just not adding up for me right now.

[00:49:49] Preston Pysh: And I’m, you know, go ahead. I interrupted your point, but I’m not, bear, if anything, I’m just kind of confused, I think is more where I’m at.

[00:49:57] Andy Edstrom: First thing to say, like, did I predict that, you know, we touch 80K you know, in the month of November this year? No, I did not predict that. I’m surprised also. Second thing I’ll say is, yeah, the correlation data has definitely been more pronounced in recent years, and that’s, If I were to explain it, I would suggest, yeah, it’s because Bitcoin has sort financialized and entered the mainstream.

[00:50:18] Andy Edstrom: You know, if you can buy a Bitcoin ETF in your brokerage account, then when you get scared about risk and you got, you’re looking at things to sell, you can sell some of that in addition to your NASDAQ or whatever else. So that’s undoubtedly true in recent years, the correlation’s been higher, and so yeah, we have a decoupling now and that’s supposed to be good. we’re supposed to like it when Bitcoin doesn’t correlate to risk assets except for when it’s to the downside and that’s not so fun. Not so fun.

[00:50:46] Andy Edstrom: I’m not aware of any fundamental problems, you know, like anything actually breaking as, we speak, or in recent months here, so there’s always, there could be some explanation we just haven’t heard about and don’t know about. But yeah, I don’t have any insight there. When I think about like short to medium returns, and I look at Bitcoin and I say, well, if it’s a bear market, like what’s my expected downside?

[00:51:08] Andy Edstrom: I kind of assume like, I don’t know, something like 68K, or sorry 60K. Maybe the 58K gang gets to ride again. We’ll see. But the upside, if this is not a bear market. And the money printer comes back, which there’s a very good chance of, even in the near term, we see 200K next year, you know, the expected value I multiply out those probabilities. I say, look, I think we’re back to a hundred. What’s the number? 116K or something, you know, well into six figures next year and on a percentage basis, that’s pretty good.

[00:51:40] Andy Edstrom: And then again, long term, nothing’s changed for me. I still expect multi hundred thousand dollars Bitcoin before the end of this decade. And if it reaches its potential, obviously, you know, it goes into the millions and beyond. So that’s all good. And yeah, look, the bear scenario that I was about to lay out was with debt levels this high and with inflation.

[00:52:01] Andy Edstrom: This much of a threat and with uncertainty about return on investment in the hot areas like Okay, in AI, buying AI stocks broadly defined at current valuations. Is that likely to yield an attractive rate of return? You might say no. You know, because everything’s kind of bubbly looking or many things are. B, the CapEx burden is huge for these guys and they may not earn a return on investment on that CapEx anytime soon. In fact, they may be vastly over investing and it may be that, you know, it’s like electricity or other sort of general technologies where actually most of the value accrues to the users. They capture the surplus rather than the producers. We don’t know.

[00:52:42] Andy Edstrom: But I can envision a scenario, which I’m not saying is high probability, where ROI at current prices on quote unquote AI stocks is not that attractive. You know, maybe it’s if you buy a basket, maybe you make low single digit returns or something because a bunch go to zero and then a few survive, but they don’t go up enough to make the basket do really well.

[00:53:04] Andy Edstrom: And then maybe the press and pitch thesis of stocks are on average 25 times earnings, and they’re going to go to 10 times, but it might take a decade. And earnings grow through all that. So you get whatever, 10% earnings growth, which are multiple contracts by more than half. And so you make like a modest return. Maybe you beat inflation and Bitcoin heroically makes, 15% a year and it’s the best performer in your portfolio among major asset classes.

[00:53:33] Andy Edstrom: I don’t know, or maybe it makes 20 to 25% a year. Which by normal standards is very attractive. So that’s the way it could go. And we could be in an era where the returns on Bitcoin are very attractive compared to other assets, but we’re not in a world where you’re going to make 40% annualized and you’re doubling every couple of years on average. Those days may be behind us and Bitcoin has other benefits we discussed earlier and, you know, that’s fine.

[00:54:05] Andy Edstrom: So we may be in the get rich lower time period rather than the get rich quick era of Bitcoin.

[00:54:12] Preston Pysh: Not what people want to hear. We’re going to get rich slower than you thought.

[00:54:18] Andy Edstrom: Exactly. We’re back to saving and patiently investing really sexy stuff.

[00:54:24] Preston Pysh: I mean, Andy, these are unprecedented times. Like, I don’t care what anybody says. You know when you look at history and you look at the rate of change that happens throughout history and you look at right now relative to any other point in time, and this is wild man, like the stuff we’re seeing rolling out, the pace that it’s rolling out.

[00:54:43] Preston Pysh: I’m covering tech now on the show, and it’s just like, it’s unbelievable the amount of things that are coming up on the radar. It’s wild.

[00:54:52] Andy Edstrom: Well, it’s obvious you were smart to pivot into that area because A, it’s fascinating, you know, endlessly fascinating. I know your mind appreciates exploring the frontier. I’m glad you’re still doing some Bitcoin content.

[00:55:05] Preston Pysh: Of course, yeah. As well. Yeah.

[00:55:07] Andy Edstrom: Because it’s relevant to the future. Yeah, you’re going to have lots to do. There’s going to be no shortage of topics for you to cover in future.

[00:55:15] Preston Pysh: And it’s all interconnected. I mean, it’s going to have so much dislocation when it comes to just the employment market and things like that as we go further down the timeline and the offset that the governments are going to have to print for all of that, like all of it’s interconnected and what a time to be alive. And you know what a pleasure to talk to you, sir, and I really appreciate you always making time and coming on the show.

[00:55:37] Preston Pysh: Give people a handoff, Andy, if they want to learn more about you or they want to check out your book.

[00:55:41] Andy Edstrom: Sure. Why Buy Bitcoin is the book. I’m still on Twitter, notwithstanding the degraded experience. EdstromAndrew is the handle. Someday I’ll make it onto Nostr with you, Preston, but it took me, I don’t know how many years to adopt Bitcoin and you know, so maybe if it took me seven years to adopt Bitcoin, I’ll be on Nostr in a few years from now after it’s proven its value in terms of risk, return to a Luddite, to a knucklehead like me.

[00:56:10] Preston Pysh: Well, we’ll have links to that in the show notes. And Andy, thanks for always making time, sir.

[00:56:15] Andy Edstrom: Thank you, Preston. Keep up the great work.

[00:56:17] Outro: Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow Bitcoin Fundamentals on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes.

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