TIVP026: THE INTRINSIC VALUE PORTFOLIO: MID-YEAR REVIEW

W/ DANIEL MAHNCKE & SHAWN O’MALLEY

29 June 2025

Daniel and Shawn step back for a mid-year review of the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, revisiting each holding to test the strength of their original theses and weigh what’s changed. From ride-hailing to beauty retail, this episode covers the full lineup: why Uber’s cross-sell flywheel and Waymo partnership reinforce its moat; how Alphabet’s latest earnings measure up against the growing threat of AI-native search; and why Reddit may succeed where Snapchat struggled, turning engagement into monetisation.

You’ll hear updates on Q1 earnings, commentary on management execution, and discussions on whether current valuations still offer upside or warrant trimming. They re-evaluate Airbnb’s evolving strategy as it expands into services and experiences, break down Ulta Beauty’s standout results, and revisit early convictions in new names like Nubank. They also debate the long-term outlook for consumer brands like Nike. Along the way, they reflect on where they’ve been right, where they’ve been early, and how to think about sizing, patience, and risk-reward in a concentrated portfolio.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why the Ulta Beauty position was being trimmed
  • How Alphabet is holding up against AI competition
  • Why Uber could benefit from autonomous vehicles
  • How Airbnb overcomes regulatory hurdles and expands into experiences
  • How Adobe used the AI revolution to strengthen its ecosystem
  • Why Reddit might become more of a second Meta than a second Snapchat
  • How Nike could overcome the recent headwinds
  • Why initiating a position in Nubank is worth the risks

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

[00:00:00] Daniel Mahncke: And for one, you know, these are unhealthy, strong business models. They’re asset light, they’re easy to scale and with ample room for expansion. And another reason is that the ones we own have come down and, you know, price and valuation a lot due to concerns about the possible disruption of their business model.

[00:00:17] Daniel Mahncke: And that’s why I see the next big narrative in our portfolio. Alphabet, Adobe, and Uber. All those are companies that trade at low or reasonable prices because of mega trends like AI or AVS. And they are supposed to have the business model. And for all three companies, we argue, as you’ve heard in this episode, that in fact they are beneficiaries of these mega trends, or in alphabet’s case, at least not in as much danger as the market currently believes.

[00:00:50] Shawn O’Malley: Hey guys, today we are doing a special type of episode. Rather than break down a new company and have one of us pitch it to the other, like we usually do this week, we’ll take some time to discuss our current portfolio and reflect on what has changed, if anything, since we first looked at those companies.

[00:01:10] Shawn O’Malley: So, we’ll, we’ll give a short pitch on each company we own, explain why we added the position, and discuss whether we are still convinced by the opportunity. I think this will be particularly interesting for the positions that I added to the portfolio before Daniel joined the show as a co-host and had the chance to gimme pushback on those ideas.

[00:01:31] Shawn O’Malley: So now Daniel is going to gimme some feedback and tell me where I went wrong in my original thinking. And jokes aside, since the show has been running for about half a year, we have covered 25 companies pretty in depth and, and that’s a pretty cool thing and it just makes sense to, to revisit those names.

[00:01:50] Shawn O’Malley: And provide some updates and specifically pay some extra attention to the companies that we hold in our portfolio. And of course, we also wanna talk about the broader strategy of the portfolio that we’re building. How do we think about position sizing, especially as a portfolio starts to fill up? And what type of investments do we wanna look for?

[00:02:11] Shawn O’Malley: What is our investment criteria? What are our expected returns? Are we looking at compounders value plays, growth companies at a reasonable price? Do we not wanna use those labels at all? Well, I, I think to different extent, we, we probably have companies that could be classified with any of those labels, but still we will get to all of that.

[00:02:28] Shawn O’Malley: And, and before we start, as always, I’d like to just quickly emphasize that this show in the portfolio we’re building are strictly for entertainment and educational purposes. This is by no means meant to be financial advice for anyone to just follow and simply go off of our recommendations. We haven’t and can’t consider your unique situation.

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